Description
Even before COVID-19, the world has been witnessing accelerating change and increasing complexity, partly due to the speed of technological development and adoption.
Strategic foresight includes a collection of method to help consider and anticipate an array of possible futures that could impact an organization, making it more adapt at facing “VUCA” – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
While a strategic foresight exercise traditionally focused on a 10- to 20-year time horizon, the high levels of uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic requires looking at significantly shorter time horizons.
With the traditional strategic planning assuming a reasonably stable environment, the strategic planning process can be enhanced by embedding foresight methods and tools.
Contents
1. Strategic Foresight Overview
– Context
– Key definitions
– Why use strategic foresight
– What strategic foresight is not
– Traditional strategic planning versus strategic foresight
– Barriers to strategic foresight and potential counteractions
– Benefits of strategic foresight
– Critical considerations for strategic foresight during a crisis
– A futurist approach to strategic planning for a given uncertainty
2. Strategic Foresight Methods
– The Foresight Diamond
– Examples of foresight methods
– Two directional orientations of foresight methods
– Common tools for corporate foresight practices
3. Strategic Foresight Frameworks
3A. Generic Foresight Process Framework
– Key activities and associated questions
– Key elements and their impact on the process
– Key activities and associated tools
3B. Integrated Foresight Framework
– Key activities and associated tools
– Integrated foresight process
3C. Corporate Foresight Framework
– High-level process based on MNC practices
– Foresight integrated long-term planning
3D. Framework Foresight
– Process with the description of each phase
– Process with the outcome of each phase
4. Undertaking a Strategic Foresight Project
– Phase 1: Frame
– Phase 2: Scan
– PESTEL analysis sample factors
– PESTEL analysis factors – summary slide
– Impact/uncertainty matrix – based on input from PEST or PESTEL analysis
– Impact/uncertainty matrix – summary slide
– Phase 3: Futurize
– The futures cone with alternative futures
– 2 x 2 scenario matrix – summary slide
– Identified key scenarios descriptions – summary slide
– Three horizon approach with scenarios embedded
– Phase 4: Envision
– Phase 5: Design
– Backcasting milestones
– Phase 6: Adapt
